Thousands of CEOs just admitted AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago

February 17, 2026 - 23:42

A recent survey of thousands of CEOs has delivered a surprising verdict on the artificial intelligence boom: so far, its widespread adoption has shown no measurable impact on company employment levels or productivity growth. This stark admission from the front lines of business has economists reaching back four decades to dust off a famous conundrum.

The findings echo what became known as the "productivity paradox," famously articulated by Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow in 1987. He quipped, "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." Despite massive investment in information technology throughout the 80s and 90s, broad economic productivity growth initially remained sluggish.

Today, a similar pattern seems to be emerging with AI. While the technology is visibly transforming workflows and sparking immense investment, its effect on the bottom-line efficiency of the overall economy appears negligible for now. Experts suggest several reasons for this delay. Successful integration requires significant complementary investments in new business processes, employee training, and organizational restructuring. The current phase may be one of experimentation and cost, with the true productivity gains materializing only after companies learn to harness the technology effectively and at scale. The CEO survey indicates we may still be in the installation phase of this new general-purpose technology, waiting for the promised payoff.